2026-04-25 · Goldman Sachs · 公司/行业基本面

高盛：亚太周度启动：MXAPJ 上涨 1%，受 AI 主题重振、财报季开局积极及美伊停火延长推动

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原标题：ASIA-PACIFIC WEEKLY KICKSTART：MXAPJ rose 1% further, driven by renewed strength in AI themes amid a positive start of the earnings season and extended US-Iran ceasefire

摘要

MXAPJ 指数周度上涨 1.1%，台湾（+7%）、韩国（+4%）和马来西亚（+2%）领涨，印尼（-8%）、泰国（-3%）和新加坡（-2%）落后。科技硬件与半导体、资本品和公用事业板块领涨，软件、医疗保健和消费者零售滞后。外资净买入台湾 41 亿美元，但净卖出韩国 9 亿美元和东盟 3 亿美元。特朗普将美伊停火延长两周，但霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭。美联储主席提名人 Warsh 强调独立性并呼吁新通胀框架。3 月核心零售销售超预期，初请失业金人数略高于共识。韩国一季度 GDP 大幅反弹并超预期，受科技出口和资本支出推动。台湾 3 月工业产出强于预期。印度 RBI MPC 会议纪要显示观望态度。168 家公司（占 MXAPJ 市值 26%）已公布一季度财报，54% 超预期，25% 不及预期，中位数惊喜 +6%。

主要观点

MXAPJ 周度上涨 1.1%，台湾（+7%）、韩国（+4%）和马来西亚（+2%）领涨，印尼（-8%）、泰国（-3%）和新加坡（-2%）落后。
科技硬件与半导体、资本品和公用事业板块领涨，软件、医疗保健和消费者零售滞后。
外资净买入台湾 41 亿美元，净卖出韩国 9 亿美元和东盟 3 亿美元。
特朗普将美伊停火延长两周，但霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭。
美联储主席提名人 Warsh 强调美联储独立性并呼吁新通胀框架。
3 月核心零售销售超预期，初请失业金人数略高于共识。
韩国一季度 GDP 环比大幅反弹并超预期，受科技出口和资本支出推动。
台湾 3 月工业产出强于预期。
印度 RBI MPC 会议纪要显示成员认为中东冲突同时推升通胀上行风险和增长下行风险，采取观望态度。
168 家公司（占 MXAPJ 市值 26%）已公布一季度财报，54% 超预期，25% 不及预期，中位数惊喜 +6%。
外资自 2 月峰值以来净买入 EM Asia ex-China 170 亿美元，收复约 22% 的 790 亿美元流出。韩国（-220 亿美元）、印度（-170 亿美元）和台湾（-140 亿美元）外资净卖出最多，但台湾是唯一外资回购超过 50% 先前卖出的市场。
3 月 EM/AE 主动型基金增加中国敞口，减少印度和台湾敞口。

论述逻辑

报告从市场表现切入，指出 MXAPJ 上涨由 AI 主题重振和财报季开局积极推动，同时美伊停火延长提供支撑。随后分析宏观数据（美国零售、就业；韩国 GDP；台湾工业产出）和央行动态（美联储提名、印度 RBI），认为经济基本面支持市场。接着聚焦指数再平衡事件，强调 MSCI 等基准调整将带来被动资金流动影响。外资流动数据显示资金回流 EM Asia，但分化明显。最后通过财报分析，指出盈利惊喜率较高但股价反应弱于历史，暗示市场已部分定价。

关键展望

未来一周关键数据：中国政治局会议、工业利润；日本 CPI、BoJ 会议；韩国 BoK 会议纪要；美国 Fed 会议、耐用品订单；中国 PMI；多国一季度 GDP 初值；美国核心 PCE 通胀。
指数再平衡事件：MSCI 将于 5 月 12 日公布审查结果，5 月 29 日生效；其他指数如 KOSPI、FTSE、恒生、CSI 等也将陆续调整。
报告未明确给出未来价格目标或评级变化。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Upcoming Index Rebalancing Events for Major Asia/Global indexes

Exhibit 2: A substantial share of global and Asia-focused AUM is benchmarked to these major indices, driving meaningful flow implications across passive vehicles, long-only managers, hedge funds, and retail investors

Exhibit 3: MSCI will be the first major benchmark to announce its review results. Historically, Emerging Markets have delivered stronger alpha than Developed Markets following the announcement for additions vs. deletions

Exhibit 4: Foreign investors have net purchased US$17bn in EM Asia ex-China recently, recovering ~22% of the US$79bn in outflows since the February peak

Exhibit 5: Korea (-US$22bn), India (-US$17bn) and Taiwan (-US$14bn) have seen the most significant net foreign selling since February 27. Among these, Taiwan is the only market where foreign investors have bought back more than 50% of the sold shares.

Exhibit 6: EPFR data shows that Asian funds are most OW Singapore and Hong Kong, and most UW Taiwan and India. In March, funds increased exposure to China while trimming positions in India and Taiwan versus the benchmark

Exhibit 7: Within Asia, EM funds are most OW Indonesia and Thailand, and most UW Taiwan and India. In March, EM funds have raised exposure in Korea, and trimmed exposure in India

Exhibit 8: Result Summary: 168 companies (26% of MXAPJ cap) have reported - CY1Q26 earnings are +77%/+54% yoy/qoq; Actual CY3M26 earnings are tracking at 25% of full-year estimates, beating historical seasonality

Exhibit 9: 1Q26 earnings surprises (vs. consensus) are positive in general, with 54% beats vs. 25% misses and a median surprise of +6%

Exhibit 10: Taiwan and Thailand had the most companies beating consensus 1Q expectations, while India had the least. Within sectors, Materials and Industrials saw the most beats, while Info Tech and Cons Disc had the least

Exhibit 11: Stocks reporting earnings beats have underperformed more than historical patterns, while those reporting misses have similar performance to historical patterns

Exhibit 12: China A, ASEAN, and India saw stronger price outperformance among earnings-beat stocks; among earnings misses, Taiwan, China A, and China/HK experienced more pronounced underperformance

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高盛：亚太周度启动：MXAPJ 上涨 1%，受 AI 主题重振、财报季开局积极及美伊停火延长推动

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主要观点

论述逻辑

关键展望

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