高盛：石油追踪：调和极端库存下降与稳定原油价格

原标题：Oil Tracker: Reconciling Extreme Draws With Stable Crude Prices

摘要

尽管全球可见石油库存以创纪录速度下降，但原油期货价格相对稳定，主要因为风险溢价降低、预期霍尔木兹海峡重新开放前的去库存以及现货购买放缓。4月至今全球可见库存平均每日减少630万桶，总库存自冲突以来已下降4.74亿桶。霍尔木兹海峡流量仍仅为正常水平的10%（每日200万桶），即使重新开放，恢复也将是渐进的。现货与期货价格脱节反映了近期交割的溢价，但近期已从每桶近40美元回落至10美元。去库存不可持续，库存有自然下限，之后主要平衡机制将是需求减少。高盛认为油价风险偏向上行，主要来自霍尔木兹海峡中断持续和中东供应损失。

主要观点

• 布伦特原油价格上周在90美元/桶以上波动，受波斯湾冲突解决前景不明影响。
• 美伊第二轮谈判因伊朗决定不参与而无限期推迟。
• 特朗普总统延长停火至提案提交并讨论结束。
• 美国维持对伊朗港口的船舶封锁。
• 全球可见石油库存4月至今以每日630万桶的速度下降，总库存自冲突以来下降4.74亿桶。
• 全球可见石油库存即使在乐观情景下（霍尔木兹流量4月底恢复）也可能达到历史最低水平。
• 霍尔木兹海峡流量仅为正常水平的10%（4日移动平均每日200万桶）。
• 现货与期货价格脱节：即期布伦特与近月期货价差（DFL）从近40美元/桶回落至10美元/桶。
• 去库存不可持续，库存有自然下限，之后主要平衡机制是需求减少。
• 全球海上石油缓冲接近耗尽，非制裁海上石油接近历史低点。
• 美国石油出口上周飙升至创纪录的每日1270万桶，但关键德州管道已接近或超过运营能力。
• 高盛认为油价风险偏向上行，主要来自霍尔木兹海峡中断持续和中东供应损失。

论述逻辑

报告从霍尔木兹海峡中断导致全球石油供应大幅减少出发，观察到库存以创纪录速度下降，但原油期货价格并未相应飙升。通过分析风险溢价降低、预期重新开放前的去库存以及现货购买放缓三个因素，解释了价格与库存的背离。进一步指出去库存不可持续，库存有自然下限，之后需求减少将成为主要平衡机制。最后，基于霍尔木兹流量恢复的不确定性和美国出口瓶颈，认为油价风险偏向上行。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出如果霍尔木兹海峡中断持续，油价存在显著上行风险。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Global Visible Total Oil Inventories Have Declined by 255mb Since the Start of the Conflict and Are Likely to Reach All-Time Lows Even if the Strait Reopens by Late April

Exhibit 2: The Financial vs. Futures Disconnect Largely Reflects the Physical Contract’s Sooner Delivery and the Benefit of Getting Crude Sooner Rather Than Later in a Tight Oil Market

Exhibit 3: We Estimate a Net Hit from Strait of Hormuz Disruptions to Global Commercial Oil Stocks of 11.4mb/d Now (Before the Demand and Production Response)

Exhibit 4: Based on Reported Vessel Counts, We Estimate that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 90% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average)

Exhibit 5: The Estimated Total Hit to Oil Flows From the Persian Gulf Is Currently at 14mb/d

Exhibit 6: Imports of Sanctioned (Iran + Russia) Crude and Condensate Declined 1.3mb/d Below Their 2025 Average

Exhibit 7: Total Estimated Oil Exports From Iran Decreased to 0.3mb/d (4-Day Moving Average) or 2.2mb/d Lower Than the 2025 Average

Exhibit 8: Non-Sanctioned Oil in Transit Drew by 9.7mb/d Over the Last 7 Days

Exhibit 9: Refinery Outages in the Middle East Are 1.7mb/d Above Their Seasonal Norms

Exhibit 10: Chinese Refineries Runs Have Declined by 1.1mb/d Since the Outbreak of the Conflict But Edged Up Last Week

Exhibit 11: Japanese Refineries Runs Remain 0.5mb/d Lower Than Their Pre-Conflict Levels

Exhibit 12: Crude and Refined Products Prices Across Regions Edged Down Over the Last Seven Days

Exhibit 13: Average Asia Refined Products Prices Edged Down Over the Last Week as Demand Likely Softened

Exhibit 14: Physical Crude Prices Are Edging Towards Futures Crude Prices as the Delivery Gap Narrows and Asian Refineries’ Appetite for Expensive Spot Cargos Moderates (Although the Crude Basis Remains Very High By Historical Standards)

Exhibit 15: WTI Implied Volatility Dropped Over the Last Week From Very High Levels

Exhibit 16: While Satellite Data on Strait of Hormuz Crossings Are Affected by AIS Signals Disruptions in the Region, Various Sources Point to Severe Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz Flows