高盛：新兴市场每周资金流监测：本周韩国和台湾遭遇外资大幅抛售；截至3月3日对冲基金未出现大规模去杠杆；南向资金流出10亿美元；富时中国50/A50指数调整

原标题：Goldman Sachs EM WEEKLY FUND FLOWS MONITOR Heavy foreign selling in Korea and Taiwan this week; No material de~grossing by Hedge Funds through March 3; Southbound saw US$1bn outflows; FTSE China 50 A50 rebalance

摘要

本周（截至2026年3月6日），新兴市场资金流出现显著分化：韩国和台湾遭遇外资大幅抛售，分别流出33亿美元和89亿美元；印度也出现13亿美元的外资流出。然而，对冲基金在3月2日至3日期间未出现大规模去杠杆，亚洲地区净流量持平，日本略有风险偏好。南向资金本周净流出10亿美元，而台湾和韩国散户分别净买入67亿和42亿美元。全球股票基金净流入120亿美元，其中GEM基金连续20周净流入，本周30亿美元，年初至今累计570亿美元，为过去二十年最快年度买入速度。富时中国指数系列季度调整将于3月20日收盘后生效，资本品预计获得最大被动流入（2.7亿美元），而消费者零售可能面临最大流出（-2.8亿美元）。

主要观点

• 本周EM亚洲（除中国）外资净卖出140亿美元，主要由台湾（-89亿美元）和韩国（-33亿美元）驱动，印度（-13亿美元）也出现周度流出。
• 非亚洲新兴市场本周外资净卖出1亿美元，主要由卡塔尔（-1亿美元）领跌。
• 对冲基金：尽管中东冲突影响亚洲市场，高盛主经纪商在3月2日和3日未发现亚洲地区大规模去杠杆迹象，亚洲净流量周度持平，日本有边际风险偏好。韩国和台湾的配置略低于近期高点。
• 南向资金本周净卖出10亿美元；台湾（+67亿美元）和韩国（+42亿美元）散户本周净买入。
• 年初至今，亚洲市场散户净流入60亿美元。
• 全球股票基金净流入120亿美元（上周为380亿美元）。发达市场中，美国基金净卖出140亿美元，欧洲（+8亿美元）和日本（+42亿美元）周度净买入。
• GEM基金连续20周净流入，本周30亿美元；年初至今GEM基金净流入570亿美元，为过去二十年最快年度买入速度。
• 基于EPFR数据，自2月27日以来，日本、台湾、GEM和中国主题基金各净流入30-40亿美元，而美国基金净流出140亿美元。
• 富时罗素宣布富时中国指数系列季度审查结果，中国50/A50指数有2/3的股票变动，将于3月20日收盘后生效。资本品（+2.7亿美元）预计获得最大被动流入，消费者零售（-2.8亿美元）可能面临最大流出。
• 自2月27日以来，外资已从近期峰值净卖出190亿美元新兴市场股票，此前自12月低点净流入约200亿美元。
• 韩国和台湾自2月27日以来分别领跌外资卖出（-89亿和-33亿美元），而印度尼西亚和巴西各出现温和买入（+1亿美元）。

论述逻辑

报告从本周外资流出数据出发，指出韩国和台湾是主要抛售对象，但强调对冲基金并未去杠杆，表明抛售可能来自其他类型投资者。随后分析南向资金流出和散户买入，显示不同投资者行为分化。全球资金流方面，GEM基金持续强劲流入，而美国基金流出，反映资金从发达市场向新兴市场再配置。最后，富时指数调整将带来被动资金流动，资本品受益，消费者零售承压。

关键展望

• 富时中国指数系列季度调整将于2026年3月20日收盘后生效，资本品预计获得最大被动流入（+2.7亿美元），消费者零售可能面临最大流出（-2.8亿美元）。
• 报告未明确给出未来时间窗口或价格预测。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Amid recent Geopolitical Volatility impacting markets in Asia, our prime desk did not see signs of de-grossing on March 2 and 3 this week. Net Flows in the region were flat week to date ...

Exhibit 2: ... with marginal risk on activity in the region led by Japan.

Exhibit 3: Korea: Net allocation is at 5.0%, while Gross allocation is at 2.7% in the Global Prime Book. Both are marginally off recent highs.

Exhibit 4: Taiwan: Net allocation is at 6.1%, while Gross is at 3.6%.

Exhibit 5: Fils have become sellers of EM equities and have net sold US$19bn from recent peak, after seeing ~US$20bn inflows from Dec trough

Exhibit 6: Among EM markets, Korea (-US$8.9bn) and Taiwan (-US$3.3bn) have led foreign selling since Feb 27, while Indonesia and Brazil (+US$0.1bn each) have seen modest buying.

Exhibit 7: Based on EPFR data, Japan, Taiwan, GEM and China-focused funds recorded US$3-4bn of inflows each since Feb 27, while US funds saw outflows of US$14bn.

Exhibit 8: Southbound flows saw net selling of US$1bn over the past week.

Exhibit 9: Capital Goods (+US$270mn) are poised to see the largest passive inflows, while Consumer Retail (-US$280mn) may face the largest outflows

Exhibit 10: Fils have become sellers of EM equities and have net sold US$19bn from recent peak, after seeing ~US$20bn inflows from Dec trough

Exhibit 11: GEM funds marked the fastest annual pace of buying over the past two decades

Exhibit 12: GEM equity funds have recorded the largest rolling 8-week net buying over the past decade

Exhibit 13: GEM equity funds flows (active vs Passive)

Exhibit 14: Adding market mandates, EM funds saw total outflows of US$18bn over the past 8 weeks, caused by China (-US$106bn) but offset by GEM (+US$54bn)

Exhibit 15: GEM, US and Europe-focused funds continued to receive inflows in 2026

Exhibit 16: The EM Asia region (ex-China) has seen selling of US$21bn, after US$13bn inflows started from Feb 26

Exhibit 17: Within Asia, Japan saw the most buying (+US$33bn) since 2026, followed by Southbound (+US$19bn). Korea (-US$17bn) and India (-US$3bn) have led the Fil selling

Exhibit 18: EM Asia ex-China markets saw FIl selling of US$14bn w/w, driven by Taiwan (-US$8.9bn) and Korea (-US$3.3bn). India (-US$1.3bn) also saw outflows w/w.

Exhibit 19: EM Asia ex-China markets saw FIl outflows of US$18bn in 2026

Exhibit 20: Non-Asia EMs saw selling of US$0.1bn wow, led by Qatar (-US$0.1bn)

Exhibit 21: In 2026, we have seen Fil inflows of US$15bn in Non-Asia EM markets, led by Brazil (+US$8bn) and Turkiye (+US$3bn)

Exhibit 22: Among EM markets, Brazil (+US$8bn) have seen the most foreign buying in 2026, while Korea (-US$17bn) has seen the most selling

Exhibit 23: Over the past month, EM Asia ex China saw outflows, while Latam and CEEMEA saw inflows

Exhibit 24: Asia markets saw Dil inflows of US$0.9bn this week, led by India (+US$2.8bn) but offset by Korea (-US$1.9bn)

Exhibit 25: Non-Asia EM markets saw US$60mn DI inflows this week, driven by UAE (+US$80mn)

Exhibit 26: India (+US$15bn) and Korea (+US$14bn) have seen the most DI buying in 2026

Exhibit 27: DII Flows into local equities market by geographic regions in 2026

Exhibit 28: Cumulative Southbound flows since inception in late 2014

Exhibit 29: Weekly Southbound net buying in past 52 weeks

Exhibit 30: SB weekly net buying by sector

Exhibit 31: Cumulative Southbound flows YTD

Exhibit 32: Southbound top buying for the week

Exhibit 33: Southbound top selling for the week

Exhibit 34: Largest Southbound holdings (Value and % of float)

Exhibit 35: Top Southbound ownership changes (over the past week)

Exhibit 36: Top Southbound traded stocks this week (as % of stock turnover)

Exhibit 37: Occurrences in Top 10 stocks (Southbound favorites)

Exhibit 38: Weekly Northbound total turnover in past 52 weeks

Exhibit 39: Northbound top turnover for the week

Exhibit 40: Occurrences in Top 10 stocks