瑞银：美国企业硬件与网络：每4个消费者中就有1个可能因内存成本上升推迟购买PC

原标题：UBS Evidence Lab inside: 1 in 4 consumers may delay PC purchase due to higher memory costs

摘要

瑞银Evidence Lab对美国和中国的1500名消费者进行了调查，分析PC购买意向趋势。调查显示，约25%的消费者可能因内存价格上涨而推迟购买PC，而约45%的消费者会选择以更高价格购买相同内存规格的PC。基于调查数据和与台湾ODM的核实，瑞银下调了2026年和2027年的PC出货量预测：2026年PC出货量（不含Chromebook）预计为224.9百万台（同比下降10.4%），2027年为228.6百万台（同比增长1.6%），此前预测分别为236.2百万台（同比下降3.7%）和240.5百万台（同比增长1.8%）。AI PC兴趣在美国上升至53%（环比+300bps），在中国仍高达82%（环比-200bps）。苹果品牌偏好在美国升至29%（环比+400bps），在中国升至13%（环比+300bps）。消费者愿意为AI PC支付约15%（美国）和14%（中国）的溢价。

主要观点

• 约25%的受访者表示可能推迟PC购买，直到内存价格下降；约45%表示会以更高价格购买相同内存规格的PC。
• 约68%的受访者预计在未来两年内购买新PC，尽管内存预计在2027年下半年之前仍将受限。
• 美国和中国的PC平均使用年龄约为33个月，环比均下降约1个月。
• 美国约60%的受访者（环比+600bps）预计在消费PC上花费更多，而中国这一比例为52%（环比+100bps）。
• AI PC兴趣在美国达到53%（环比+300bps），为调查以来最高；中国为82%（环比-200bps），但仍处于高位。
• 个人AI助手/聊天机器人在AI PC功能重要性中排名最后（约38%），而更快的信息检索/搜索是首要功能（约48%）。
• 苹果在美国的品牌偏好升至29%（环比+400bps），在中国升至13%（环比+300bps），逆转了之前的份额下降趋势。
• 戴尔（约15%）、联想（约14%）和惠普（约7%）的品牌偏好与上次调查相比基本不变。
• 瑞银将2026年总PC出货量预测下调5.1%至241.6百万台（同比下降10.8%，此前预测下降4.0%），2027年下调5.0%至246.6百万台（同比增长2.1%，此前预测增长2.0%）。
• 消费者愿意为AI PC支付约15%（美国）和14%（中国）的溢价，传统PC预算在美国从807美元升至827美元，在中国从7425元升至7760元。

论述逻辑

瑞银通过UBS Evidence Lab消费者调查（1500名美国和中国消费者）获取PC购买意向数据，结合与台湾ODM的渠道检查，发现内存成本上升导致约25%消费者可能推迟购买，而约45%愿意接受更高价格。基于此，瑞银下调了2026年和2027年PC出货量预测，并指出戴尔和惠普的预测反映了因内存相关提前采购导致的上半年季节性走强，随后下半年出货量下降。AI PC兴趣虽高，但个人AI助手功能并非主要驱动力；苹果品牌偏好在美国和中国均上升。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出内存预计在2027年下半年之前仍将受限，可能影响PC供应。瑞银预计AI PC兴趣将保持高位，因AI PC日益普及（如惠普AI PC出货占比超35%，预计本财年渗透率达40%-50%）。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的，但覆盖了戴尔和惠普，并提及了苹果、联想等品牌偏好数据。

关键图表

Figure 1: Forecast total PC units to decline 10.8% and grow 2.1% in CY26 and CY27, respectively

Figure 2: We lower our CY26 and CY27 unit estimates due to higher memory prices and tight supply

Figure 3: In total, ~45% would opt for the same memory/specs at a higher price but ~25% would delay their purchase

Figure 4: In the US, ~34% would opt for the same memory/specs at a higher price but ~27% would delay their purchase

Figure 5: In China, ~54% would opt for the same memory/specs at a higher price but ~23% would delay their purchase

Figure 6: In the US, ~53% of respondents expressed an interest in AI PCs

Figure 7: AI PC interest in the US rose ~300 bps from the prior survey

Figure 8: In China, ~82% of respondents expressed an interest in AI PCs

Figure 9: AI PC interest in China declined ~200 bps relative to the prior survey

Figure 10: In the US, image/multimedia content creation is the only feature to have consecutively increased in importance over the past two surveys

Figure 11: In China, a personal assistant/chatbot has been increasing in importance for consumers but still lags other features

Figure 12: A mid teens ASP increase in the US is possible as budgets for both traditional and AI PCs rose

Figure 13: In China, the potential ASP uplift ticked lower from last survey (+16%) as both traditional and AI PC budgets declined

Figure 14: ~48% of US respondents expect to pay > $900 for an AI PC

Figure 15: Roughly 37% of respondents in China expect to pay > RMB 9000 for an AI PC

Figure 16: When did you buy your current Laptop/Desktop? (US)

Figure 17: When did you buy your current Laptop/Desktop? (China)

Figure 18: How often do you normally buy a new Laptop/Desktop? (years) (US)

Figure 19: How often do you normally buy a new Laptop/Desktop? (years) (China)

Figure 20: US - When do you think you will buy a new computer? ~68% of respondents in the US expect to buy a new PC in the next 2 years

Figure 21: China - When do you think you will buy a new computer? ~68% of respondents expect to buy a new PC in the next 2 years

Figure 22: US consumers expecting to spend more on a PC rose ~600 bps sequentially

Figure 23: Conversely, willingness to spend more in China rose ~100 bps sequentially

Figure 24: PC budget in the US rose ~2% since the prior survey

Figure 25: PC budget in China rose ~5% since the prior survey

Figure 26: In the US, preference for Apple rose ~400 bps vs last survey

Figure 27: In China, preference for HP and Dell declined as Apple rose