高盛：韩国每周启动：KOSPI 在市场持续波动和外资流出中下跌 4%；远期市盈率降至全球金融危机以来最低
摘要公开阅读；PDF 仅限有效会员阅读与下载，所有会员权限相同。 邮件登录
摘要
KOSPI 本周下跌 4%，市场持续波动，外资继续流出，尤其是科技板块。12 个月远期市盈率降至 6.5 倍，为全球金融危机以来最低。尽管市场疲弱，盈利上调仍在继续，KOSPI 12 个月远期 EPS 上调 4.8%，休闲板块上调幅度最大（14.5%），化工板块下调最多。韩国权益风险晴雨表（GSSRKERB）降至 -1.5，进入风险厌恶区域，但该指标是反向指标，尤其在市场已大幅波动后，预示未来股市回报更积极。韩元兑美元本周升值 0.3%，但对日元和欧元贬值 0.2%。报告通过“KOSPI 抛售脉冲检查”图表分析，即使假设盈利大幅下调（-33%）和估值处于历史低谷，KOSPI 仍有上行潜力。
主要观点
- KOSPI 本周下跌 4%，外资持续卖出，尤其集中在科技板块（Exhibit 35）。
- 12 个月远期市盈率降至 6.5 倍，为全球金融危机以来最低（Exhibit 1）。
- 即使假设盈利下调 33% 且估值处于历史低谷，KOSPI 仍有上行潜力（Exhibit 2）。
- 盈利上调继续，KOSPI 12 个月远期 EPS 上调 4.8%（Exhibit 3）。
- 休闲板块盈利上调最强（14.5%），化工板块下调最多（Exhibit 22）。
- 韩国权益风险晴雨表（GSSRKERB）为 -1.5，进入风险厌恶区域（Exhibit 6）。
- 该风险晴雨表是反向指标，尤其在市场已大幅波动后，预示未来回报更积极（Exhibit 7）。
- 韩元兑美元升值 0.3%，但对日元和欧元贬值 0.2%。
- 银行、证券和休闲板块本周表现最佳，科技、保险和零售板块表现最差（Exhibit 8）。
- KOSPI 的 RSI 指数降至 3 月底以来最低，且已跌破 50 日均线（Exhibit 5）。
- 外资本周净卖出 KOSPI 约 1.99 万亿韩元（Exhibit 34）。
论述逻辑
报告从市场表现出发：KOSPI 下跌 4%，外资持续流出，远期市盈率降至历史低位。但盈利上调仍在继续，且韩国权益风险晴雨表进入风险厌恶区域，该指标历史上是反向指标，尤其在市场大幅下跌后，往往预示未来回报改善。报告进一步通过情景分析（Exhibit 2）论证，即使假设盈利大幅下调 33% 且估值处于历史低谷，KOSPI 仍有上行空间。因此，当前市场悲观情绪可能过度，提供了潜在买入机会。
关键展望
报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出韩国权益风险晴雨表（GSSRKERB）在 -1.5 水平，历史上在市场已大幅波动后，该指标预示未来 1 个月、3 个月和 6 个月的中位数回报为正（Exhibit 7）。报告还提到 KOSPI 12 个月目标价为 12000（Exhibit 17），但未给出具体时间表。
推荐标的
报告未明确给出推荐标的。
关键图表
Exhibit 1: KOSPI 12m forward P/E hit the lowest level since the G.F.C amid the recent market volatility
Exhibit 2: Even assuming significant earnings downgrades and valuation at historical earnings trough, KOPSI has upside potential versus the current level
Exhibit 3: Earnings upgrades have continued this week despite the market weakness
Exhibit 4: Earnings have been upgraded broadly across most sectors
Exhibit 5: RSI Index for KOSPI has also fallen to the lowest level since the end of March, 2026 as KOSPI has broken below 50day moving average
Exhibit 6: Korea’s ERB indicator has fallen into a risk-adverse regime
Exhibit 7: Our Korea equity risk barometer is a contrarian indicator especially under the conditions where significant market moves have already taken place; it indicates more constructive equity market returns on a forward-looking basis
Exhibit 8: Summary of the past week’s performance
Exhibit 9: Summary of year-to-date flows
Exhibit 10: Equity inflows to 5 AEJ markets
Exhibit 11: Equity inflows to 5 AEJ markets
Exhibit 12: Bond inflows to 4 AEJ markets
Exhibit 13: Bond inflows to 4 AEJ markets
Exhibit 14: Housing prices and rental prices
Exhibit 15: Living expense price changes
Exhibit 16: Daily Financial Condition Index
Exhibit 17: Korea Economic Forecasts
Exhibit 18: Performance of Korean and regional equity markets
Exhibit 19: KOSPI and MSCI regional index
Exhibit 20: Weekly sector performance relative to KOSPI
Exhibit 21: Historical trend of monthly KOSPI earnings momentum
Exhibit 22: Weekly earnings momentum for KOSPI and selected sectors
Exhibit 23: KOSPI earnings revisions by sector
Exhibit 24: Valuation summary for regional equity markets
Exhibit 25: 12-month forward P/E and P/B for KOSPI, since Jan 2008
Exhibit 26: 12-month forward P/E for MSCI Korea, since Jan 2008
Exhibit 27: Current 12m forward P/E of KOSPI and selected sectors since Jan 2006
Exhibit 28: 12-m forward P/E for KOSPI and selected sectors since Jan 2006
Exhibit 29: MXKR valuation discount relative to MSCI AC World NTM P/E
Exhibit 30: MXKR valuation discount relative to MXAPJ NTM P/E
Exhibit 31: NTM P/E Valuation Discount vs. 10-year History by Sector
Exhibit 32: P/B Valuation Discount vs. 10-year History by Sector
Exhibit 33: 2025 & 2026 year-to-date KOSPI purchase by investor type
Exhibit 34: KOSPI net equity transactions by investor type (KRW bn)
Exhibit 35: Weekly fund flows on sectors by investor type, with relative returns to KOSPI
Exhibit 36: KOSPI sectors, ranked by foreign ownership as a % of total market value
Exhibit 37: KOSPI sectors ranked by foreign ownership % change
Exhibit 38: Equity net weekly flows
Exhibit 39: 12-month forward D/Y for KOSPI and Korea Treasury bond yield