高盛：电力追踪：数据中心推动需求并收紧美国电力市场

原标题：Power Tracker: Data Centers Boosting Demand and Tightening US Power Markets

摘要

美国数据中心容量新增在2025年12月达到月度创纪录的1.4 GW，全年新增10 GW，推动2025年1-10月美国电力需求同比增长2.8%，为20年来最高增速。超过一半的美国区域电力市场在2025年达到临界紧张状态。PJM市场（中大西洋地区）下调了2027-2029年夏季峰值需求增速预测至平均3.1%，但上调了10年长期预测至3.6%。2026年1月16日，特朗普总统及东北部多州州长提出PJM紧急拍卖计划，要求科技公司为新建发电容量提供长期合同资金。高盛认为该计划对数据中心新增和电力需求增长影响有限，因为电力成本并非数据中心选址的主要驱动因素，且数据中心市场在未来几年仍将供不应求。

主要观点

• 美国数据中心容量新增在2025年12月达到月度创纪录的1.4 GW，全年新增10 GW。
• 2025年1-10月美国电力需求同比增长2.8%，为20年来最高增速。
• 超过一半的美国区域电力市场在2025年达到临界紧张状态。
• PJM市场下调2027-2029年夏季峰值需求增速预测至平均3.1%，但上调10年长期预测至3.6%。
• 短期来看，PJM市场的临界紧张和输电瓶颈可能减缓数据中心扩张。
• 长期来看，数据中心、电气化（包括电动汽车）和工业活动增长将持续推动电力需求。
• 2026年1月16日，特朗普总统及东北部多州州长提出PJM紧急拍卖计划，要求科技公司为新建发电容量提供长期合同资金。
• 高盛认为该计划对数据中心新增和电力需求增长影响有限，因为电力成本并非主要驱动因素，且数据中心市场供不应求。
• 该计划对PJM整体市场紧张和电费的影响仍不明确，取决于市场运营商的实施。
• 美国电力需求在2025年末与2024年大致持平，但经天气调整后1-10月同比增长2.8%。
• 商业电力需求在2025年末低于2024年水平，住宅需求自2025年10月起恢复同比增长。
• 工业电力需求在2025年末转弱。

论述逻辑

报告从数据中心容量新增创纪录出发，指出其推动美国电力需求增速升至20年高位，导致多数区域市场紧张。进而聚焦PJM市场，分析其短期下调但长期上调需求预测的矛盾，解释短期瓶颈与长期增长潜力。最后引入政策事件（紧急拍卖计划），评估其对数据中心扩张的有限影响，并指出市场影响仍不确定。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出PJM市场运营商的响应计划（包括备用发电采购流程）将影响紧急计划的效果。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: US data center capacity additions are making new highs and remain highly geographically concentrated in power markets such as PJM (mid-Atlantic)

Exhibit 2: The power price in ERCOT (Texas) follows usual seasonality and has started to edge lower given warmer-than-average weather since mid-December

Exhibit 3: Power prices in PJM (Mid-Atlantic) have moderated following the early-winter rally driven by colder-than-average weather and higher average natural gas prices in the past few weeks

Exhibit 4: The PJM (Mid-Atlantic) power market remains soft even with colder-than-average weather

Exhibit 5: The MISO (Mid-Continental) power market remains well above the critical tightness threshold

Exhibit 6: Both the mild winter and sufficient effective generation capacity led to the softest balances in the ERCOT (Texas) power market among major US regional power markets

Exhibit 7: US total power demand at the end of 2025 stayed roughly in line with 2024

Exhibit 8: After weather adjustment, US total power demand growth averaged 2.8% yoy in Jan-Oct 2025, the period when we have official data, though preliminary high frequency data suggests a yoy drop in Nov/Dec

Exhibit 9: Commercial power demand at the end of 2025 fell below the 2024 level

Exhibit 10: Residential power demand has restarted to grow yoy since Oct25

Exhibit 11: Industrial power demand growth turned weaker at the end of 2025

Exhibit 12: The difference between US power demand growth and US GDP growth remained positive but narrowed in 3Q25 with the latest Sep data

Exhibit 13: Estimated data center power demand in Virginia has edged higher

Exhibit 14: US data center capacity additions are making new highs and are highly geographically concentrated in power markets such as PJM (mid-Atlantic)

Exhibit 15: Texas, Ohio, Virginia, and Georgia added the most data center power demand capacity in the past year

Exhibit 16: Texas, Ohio, Virginia, and Georgia are expected to continue adding the most data center power demand capacity in January 2026

Exhibit 17: US total power generation started 2026 below 2025 levels, mainly driven by weather

Exhibit 18: After adjusting for warmer weather, US total power generation into 2026 was in line with 2025

Exhibit 19: The thermal (natural gas and coal) share in US power supply has been ~5pp below year-ago levels

Exhibit 20: Within thermal power generation, the natural gas share has been higher than last year

Exhibit 21: US power transmission and distribution losses have increased above 8 percent of total generation

Exhibit 22: The yoy decline in natural gas-fired generation has widened into the new year, driven by weather

Exhibit 23: Coal power generation turned lower yoy on decreased competitiveness vs gas into 2026 as natural gas prices fell from its Dec25 high

Exhibit 24: Nuclear power generation into 2026 has been marginally stronger than 2025

Exhibit 25: Wind generation returned to 2025 levels despite a yoy capacity additions of nearly 9 GW

Exhibit 26: Solar generation has continued to ramp up yoy, driven by higher capacity

Exhibit 27: Hydro power generation has increased significantly since Nov25, much above 2025 levels

Exhibit 28: Battery power supply has dropped sharply since Dec25, driven by lower demand for storage given lower demand