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高盛：小米集团（1810.HK）：核心利润抵御智能手机/电动汽车利润率波动；AI投资打造物理AI领导地位；更新估值情景并维持买入

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原标题：Goldman Sachs Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Backbone profit to defend against smartphone EV margin fluctuation; AI investments to build leadership in physical AI; Refresh valuation scenarios and stay Buy

摘要

高盛维持小米集团（1810.HK）买入评级，12个月目标价41.00港元，较当前股价33.42港元有22.7%上行空间。报告指出，消费电子和汽车行业上游成本飙升以及国家补贴和新能源车激励退坡导致需求疲软，是拖累小米盈利和估值的两大主要逆风。高盛下调2025-27年收入预测2%/9%/8%，下调调整后净利润预测8%/24%/20%，但认为风险回报仍有利，12个月远期价值/股为27.5港元，熊市/牛市情景分别为-18%下行和+41%上行。核心利润（互联网服务、AIoT及其他收入）预计2026年达335亿元，相当于集团调整后净利润的110%，可缓冲智能手机和电动汽车的利润波动。AI投资（如MiMo-V2-Flash模型、人形机器人、芯片组）有望建立物理AI领导地位。关键催化剂包括4Q25业绩发布、SU7改款、YU7 GT车型发布等。

主要观点

  • 上游成本上升和补贴退坡是小米盈利和估值的主要逆风，高盛下调2025-27年收入预测2%/9%/8%，调整后净利润预测8%/24%/20%。
  • 维持买入评级，12个月目标价41.00港元（+23%上行），12个月远期价值/股27.5港元，熊市/牛市情景分别为-18%下行和+41%上行。
  • 核心利润（互联网服务、AIoT及其他收入）2026年预计达335亿元，相当于集团调整后净利润304亿元的110%，可缓冲智能手机约4亿元净亏损和电动汽车约10亿元净利润。
  • 智能手机2026年出货量预计下降10%至约1.5亿部，毛利率约8%（2025年盈亏平衡），受内存成本上升（每部增加100-200元）和行业出货量下降13%影响。
  • 电动汽车2026年交付量预计61万辆，毛利率约21%（2025年约24.3%），净利润约10亿元（2025年约25亿元）。
  • AI研发投入增加（2026年400亿元 vs 2025年320亿元）短期拖累利润，但长期有望确立物理AI领导地位，包括MiMo-V2-Flash模型、人形机器人、miclaw AI代理和XRING芯片组。
  • 4Q25预览：总收入同比+7%至1160亿元，其中电动汽车收入同比+120%至370亿元；调整后净利润同比-29%至59亿元。
  • 2025年全年预计总收入同比+25%至4570亿元，调整后净利润同比+42%至388亿元，硬件业务调整后净利润率8.5%。
  • 关键催化剂：3月底4Q25业绩和SU7改款发布；未来几个月MiMo-v2-Pro模型更新；2026年中YU7 GT发布；6.18购物节；3Q26末第三款车型（全尺寸EREV SUV）发布。
  • 智能手机行业整合信号：华硕（2025年出货<20万部）、魅族（<100万部）和realme中国业务已停止或暂停。

论述逻辑

上游成本（内存、电池等）上升和补贴退坡 → 智能手机和电动汽车利润率承压 → 高盛下调收入和利润预测 → 但核心利润（互联网+AIoT+投资收入）提供缓冲 → 同时AI和芯片投资有望打造长期竞争力 → 当前估值未充分反映这些因素 → 维持买入评级。

关键展望

  • 2026年智能手机出货量下降10%至约1.5亿部，毛利率约8%。
  • 2026年电动汽车交付量61万辆，毛利率约21%。
  • 2026年核心利润335亿元，集团调整后净利润304亿元。
  • 2025年全年总收入4570亿元，调整后净利润388亿元。
  • 12个月目标价41.00港元，熊市/牛市情景分别为27.5港元和47.0港元。
  • 报告未明确其他未来验证点。

推荐标的

  • 小米集团（1810.HK）：评级买入，12个月目标价41.00港元，当前价33.42港元，上行22.7%。理由：风险回报有利，核心利润缓冲，AI投资打造长期领导地位。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Revenue and profitability breakdown by segment by GSe

Exhibit 2: We model Xiaomi smartphone shipments to decline -10%/-15% yoy in 4Q25E/1Q26E to 38.4mn/35.6mn units respectively

Exhibit 3: We model Xiaomi smartphone ASP to drop -1% yoy at c.Rmb1.13k in 2025E and to grow +3% yoy at Rmb1.16k in 2026E

Exhibit 4: Apple and OPPO sustained yoy market share gains in 4Q25/2026 YTD, while Xiaomi saw yoy market share decline in 4Q25/2026 YTD

Exhibit 5: Xiaomi China smartphone sell-out dropped -36% yoy/-24% yoy in Jan/first 8 weeks of 2026

Exhibit 6: LPDDR4X 6GB/8GB/12GB prices grew 58%-71% as of Mar 3, 2026 vs. Dec-end 2025 or 483%-577% yoy vs. 1Q25

Exhibit 7: NAND UFS 2.2 128GB/256GB/512GB increased 38%-50% vs. Dec-end 2026 or 221%-340% yoy vs. 1Q25, while NAND eMMC 5.1 64GB/128GB/256GB increased 35%-77% vs. Dec-end 2025 or 330%-522% yoy vs. 1Q25

Exhibit 8: We saw divergent pricing changes for the Xiaomi 17/17 Ultra models released overseas vs. the prior Xiaomi 15/15 Ultra models across countries

Exhibit 9: Xiaomi AloT revenue breakdown by category (Rmb bn)

Exhibit 10: We expect Xiaomi’s IoT revenue growth to recover in 2H26E on a more normalized base

Exhibit 11: China white goods industry online sales dropped -23%/-2% yoy in 4Q25/Jan 2026, while offline sales declined -47% yoy in 4Q25 and increased +10% yoy in Jan 2026

Exhibit 12: China TV shipments fell -7% yoy in Jan-Feb narrowing down from -21% yoy in 4Q25, while Xiaomi’s TV shipments dropped -23% yoy in Jan-Feb due to focus on the premium segment

Exhibit 13: We expect AloT revenue growth to recover in 2H26E, with overseas AloT revenue growth outpacing domestic growth in 2026E

Exhibit 14: China and overseas MAU growth of Mi Home app both decelerated in 4Q25 and Jan 2026

Exhibit 15: Xiaomi AloT online GMV on Moojing (Tmall+Taobao+JD) was flattish yoy in 4Q25 but dropped -32% yoy in Jan 2026

Exhibit 16: We believe memory cost increase represents the biggest BOM cost pressure for EV this year

Exhibit 17: We expect Xiaomi EV volume to reach 610k units in 2026E, including 190k units for SU7 model, 380k units for YU7 model, and 40k units for large-sized SUV model

Exhibit 18: We expect Xiaomi EV GPM to drop to 17.9%/20.7% in 1Q26E/2Q26E (vs. 22.9% in 4Q25E), due to increased consumer benefits and rising BOM costs

Exhibit 19: Xiaomi EV achieved 20k monthly deliveries in Feb 2026, with YU7 model accounting for the majority

Exhibit 20: Expected waiting time for YU7 standard and Pro version has been effectively shortened over the past month

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