瑞银：美国经济展望：3月CPI回顾：石油驱动的通胀跳升

原标题：March CPI recap: Oil-driven inflation jump

摘要

3月美国CPI数据显示，受石油价格推动，整体CPI环比上涨0.87%，同比从2月的2.41%跃升至3.26%。核心CPI环比仅上涨0.20%，低于预期，同比从2.46%升至2.60%。汽油和能源商品价格环比飙升21%，创近70年最大单月涨幅。住房租金涨幅温和，业主等价租金环比上涨0.28%，租户租金上涨0.19%。关税影响继续逐步传导，但核心商品（不含运输）同比已升至2.3%。瑞银预计4月CPI将再次强劲，整体CPI同比或达3.8%左右，核心CPI同比在5月达2.9%左右。3月核心PCE价格预计环比上涨0.31%，同比达3.19%。

主要观点

• 整体CPI环比上涨0.87%，仅比瑞银预期低0.01个百分点，比彭博共识低0.09个百分点。
• 12个月整体CPI通胀从2.41%大幅升至3.26%，但仍有约0.09个百分点的下行偏差，源于政府停摆期间租金数据缺失。
• 汽油和其他能源商品价格3月环比上涨21%，为近70年历史最大涨幅。
• AAA数据显示，自3月底以来普通无铅汽油价格每加仑上涨约10美分。
• 核心CPI环比仅上涨0.20%，低于瑞银预期的0.27%和彭博共识的0.28%。
• 12个月核心CPI通胀从2.46%升至2.60%，瑞银认为2月可能是年内低点。
• 业主等价租金环比上涨0.28%，租户租金上涨0.19%，符合预期，但长期增速应继续放缓。
• 核心非租金服务价格环比上涨0.18%，低于预期，但高于去年同期的-0.19%。
• 法律服务价格环比下降4.6%，为2001年以来最大降幅，但远小于1月的约12%涨幅。
• 瑞银预计3月核心PCE价格环比上涨0.31%，整体PCE环比上涨0.68%，12个月核心PCE通胀达3.19%。

论述逻辑

3月CPI数据受石油价格飙升主导，汽油价格创历史最大月涨幅，推动整体通胀大幅上升。核心通胀则因住房租金温和、关税传导渐进而低于预期。瑞银认为，石油和关税冲击将在未来几个月推高通胀峰值，但随后逐步消退。住房租金的长期放缓趋势将限制核心通胀上行空间。PCE价格预测需等待PPI和进口价格数据，但初步估计显示核心PCE通胀仍高于CPI。

关键展望

• 4月CPI预计整体环比上涨0.66%，核心环比上涨0.44%。
• 整体CPI通胀预计在4月达到约3.8%的峰值，核心CPI通胀在5月达到约2.9%的峰值。
• 如果原油价格持续高于当前期货水平，通胀峰值可能更高、更晚。
• 政府停摆导致的租金偏差将在4月CPI中逆转。
• 关税对通胀的上行影响预计将持续至2028年。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Figure 1: Headline and core CPI inflation

Figure 2: Core CPI goods and services inflation

Figure 3: Prices for CPI energy goods (i.e. gasoline) had the largest 1-month change in their nearly 70 year history

Figure 4: In contrast, the prices for energy services were unremarkable

Figure 5: Prices for food at home fell in March, which was consistent with the price declines we had seen in Nielsen's grocery store data

Figure 6: The 12-month change in prices for food away from home has moved very little in the past couple of years

Figure 7: CPI core goods prices saw a small price increase in March...

Figure 8: …as new car prices rose only 0.10%...

Figure 9: …and used vehicle prices fell for a fourth month and are likely to fall again next month...

Figure 10: …but core goods prices outside of transportation continue to rise solidly — likely as a result of gradual tariff pass-through

Figure 11: The pace of increase in owners’ equivalent rent continues to gradually slow, though next month should have a large increase

Figure 12: Prices for core CPI services excluding housing rent showed a moderate increase, but much stronger than the decline a year ago in March, and we expect the 12-month change to edge up through the summer

Figure 13: Lodging away from home prices rose just slightly and the 12-month change turned positive

Figure 14: Medical care services price inflation had been strong in recent months, but showed almost no change in March as price for medical professional slowed from strong increase in January and February