高盛：中国每周快报：离岸跌1%而A股涨1%；春节黄金周数据显示旅游人次稳步改善

原标题：Goldman Sachs CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Offshore lost 1% while A~shares gained 1%； CNY Golden Week data showed solid tourism volume improvement

摘要

本周MSCI中国指数（MXCN）下跌0.6%，沪深300上涨1.1%。春节黄金周旅游人次稳步改善，但日均电影票房收入降至2021年以来最低。习近平主席会见德国总理默茨；白宫宣布特朗普总统将于3月31日至4月2日访华。美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的关税无效；特朗普随即宣布10%“全球关税”（后升至15%），高盛经济学家估算美国对华有效关税税率净降6.6个百分点。中国央行宣布自3月2日起将外汇远期售汇风险准备金率从20%降至0%。南向资金本周净流入8亿美元。“两会”将于3月4日开幕，总理李强将在3月5日上午宣布年度经济目标。高盛将于3月5-6日在深圳举办中国论坛2026。

主要观点

• 市场表现： MXCN本周跌0.6%，沪深300涨1.1%。离岸消费服务（-2.6%）和成长（-1.4%）落后。
• 春节数据： 黄金周旅游人次稳步改善，但日均电影票房收入降至2021年以来最低。
• 政策事件： 习近平会见德国总理默茨；特朗普宣布3月31日至4月2日访华。
• 关税动态： 美国最高法院裁定IEEPA关税无效；特朗普宣布10%“全球关税”（后升至15%）；高盛估算美国对华有效关税税率净降6.6个百分点。
• 央行政策： 中国央行将外汇远期售汇风险准备金率从20%降至0%，3月2日生效。
• 资金流向： 南向资金本周净流入8亿美元，年初至今累计200亿美元。
• 两会前瞻： 两会3月4日开幕，总理李强3月5日上午宣布年度经济目标。
• 行业表现（离岸）： 材料（+6.7%）和动量（+6.8%）跑赢；医疗保健（-3.3%）和贝塔（-2.9%）落后。
• 行业表现（A股）： 材料（+6.3%）和盈利修正（+2.7%）跑赢；医疗保健（-3.3%）落后。
• 估值： MXCN/CSI300 12个月远期市盈率分别为11.8倍/14.5倍；2026/27年EPS增长共识分别为16%/16%和15%/13%。
• 盈利修正： 医疗保健和材料在离岸/在岸市场获最多上调。
• AI主题： 报告发布《中国策略：AI改变游戏规则（第二部分）：中国AI宇宙自上而下指南》。

论述逻辑

报告从本周市场表现（MXCN跌0.6%，沪深300涨1.1%）切入，指出春节旅游数据改善但电影票房疲弱。随后梳理政策事件（习近平会见默茨、特朗普访华、最高法院关税裁决、特朗普新关税、央行降准），并估算关税净影响（有效税率降6.6个百分点）。接着分析资金流向（南向净流入8亿美元）和两会前瞻。最后通过行业表现、估值、盈利修正和AI主题报告，总结市场驱动因素。

关键展望

• 两会： 3月4日开幕，总理李强3月5日上午宣布年度经济目标。
• 特朗普访华： 3月31日至4月2日。
• 高盛中国论坛2026： 3月5-6日在深圳举行。
• AI主题报告： 已发布《中国策略：AI改变游戏规则（第二部分）》。
• 关税影响： 高盛估算美国对华有效关税税率净降6.6个百分点，但后续关税调整仍不确定。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: AI adoption has continued to rise as LLMs improve

Exhibit 2: Fund raising activity for Chinese AI names has picked up in recent quarters, especially in HK

Exhibit 3: More than US$3tn of market cap has been added to Chinese tech equities since the “DeepSeek moment”

Exhibit 4: The revenue exposures to AI vary significantly across sectors in China, according to RBICS

Exhibit 5: China is an integral part of our defined global AI universe

Exhibit 6: Investors with a global mandate are significantly underweight China stocks, AI Tech equities in particular

Exhibit 7: The broad Chinese AI value chain: it hosts more than 3,000 companies with an aggregate market cap of US$10tn, of which about half is directly linked with AI

Exhibit 8: The US and North Asian tech companies are leading in the Semi and Model cohorts, but China AI opportunities seem better populated in Power, Infrastructure, and Physical AI

Exhibit 9: Domestic tourism volume and revenue during the LNY Golden Week both improved from previous long holidays

Exhibit 10: Daily movie box office revenue during the LNY Golden week fell to its lowest point since reopening

Exhibit 11: Tourism revenue grew +19% yoy to Rmb803bn (+6% on daily basis), implying rather stable per-traveler spending of Rmb1,348/head

Exhibit 12: The domestic/international air pax carried by Chinese carriers grew by +7% / +9% YoY during 2026 CNY

Exhibit 13: HK inbound daily arrivals (Mainland Chinese and foreigners)

Exhibit 14: Macau weekly GGR trend

Exhibit 15: In history, China markets tend to perform well after the NPC meetings empirically

Exhibit 16: Utilities, Healthcare and Staples were the best performing sectors around NPC meetings

Exhibit 17: SOEs tend to outperform POEs modestly around NPC meetings

Exhibit 18: Northbound flows tend to be slightly stronger before the NPC meetings

Exhibit 19: Asia continues to see strong risk on activity. Risk flows while strong, reduced from the record inflows seen in January. EMs drove most of the risk on activity.

Exhibit 20: Asian equities saw strong net buying flows MTD with long buys exceeding short sales 3.3 to 1. Both Emerging and Developed markets saw net inflows, with Emerging markets leading.

Exhibit 21: China continues to dominate risk flows in the A-share space.

Exhibit 22: On a net basis the market was net sold, with H-shares and A-shares leading the selling flows, partially offset by ADR buying.

Exhibit 23: Gross allocation to China increased 31 bps MTD to 7.6% (94th percentile 5-year)

Exhibit 24: Net allocation decreased marginally to 7.8% (35th percentile 5-year)

Exhibit 25: Our A-H rotation model suggests that H shares are likely to modestly outperform A shares in the next three months

Exhibit 26: Our news search-based Proxy indicates that policy towards POEs has turned less easy lately

Exhibit 27: Our revamped A-share Retail Sentiment Proxy is not stretched compared to previous periods of strong sentiment

Exhibit 28: Our ETF flow tracker indicate that “National Team” (NT) ETF selling has moderated over the past weeks

Exhibit 29: US-China Relations Barometer (GSSRUSCN) at 64

Exhibit 30: Equity market easing stance seems to moderate per our Equity Policy Risks Barometer