高盛：新兴市场每周资金流监测：2025年FII再度流出；新兴市场/亚洲共同基金2025年回报28-30%；过去一个月新兴市场基金增持沙特和巴西，减持北亚和印度；GEM基金连续第11周净流入

原标题：Goldman Sachs EM WEEKLY FUND FLOWS MONITOR：2025 marks another year of FII outflows； EM Asia MFs posted 28~30% returns in 2025； EM funds added Saudi Brazil， and trimmed N. Asia India in past 1m； GEM saw 11th consecutive weekly inflow

摘要

2025年，外国机构投资者（FII）对新兴市场（除中国）的净流出再度出现，全年净卖出约US$22bn，但4月至10月期间曾净买入近US$50bn。新兴市场/亚洲共同基金2025年平均回报28-30%，连续第三年实现正收益。过去一个月，新兴市场基金增持沙特和巴西，减持韩国、台湾和印度。GEM基金连续第11周净流入，本周净流入US$0.9bn。全球股票基金本周净流入US$42bn，而前一周为净流出US$10bn。南向通2025年累计净买入US$180bn，创历史最大年度买入。

主要观点

• 2025年FII对新兴市场（除中国）净卖出约US$22bn，但4月至10月期间曾净买入近US$50bn，随后从高点回落。
• 2025年新兴市场/亚洲/中国共同基金平均回报28-30%，连续第三年正收益。
• 仅约一半的大型亚洲/新兴市场基金跑赢基准，低于过去10年平均55-65%的水平。
• 过去一个月，新兴市场基金增持沙特（+15bp）和巴西（+40bp），减持韩国（-25bp）、台湾（-20bp）和印度（-20bp）。
• 行业层面，基金对中国消费零售的配置增加最多（+25bp），对印度工业的配置削减最多（-15bp）。
• GEM基金本周净流入US$0.9bn，连续第11周净流入。
• 全球股票基金本周净流入US$42bn，其中美国基金净流入US$30bn。
• 南向通2025年累计净买入US$180bn，创历史最大年度买入。
• 北向通本周总成交额平均US$133bn。
• 新兴市场（除中国）FII净流出中，印度（-US$19bn）和南非（-US$12bn）流出最多，沙特（+US$6bn）和巴西（+US$5bn）流入最多。

论述逻辑

报告从2025年FII资金流整体回顾入手，指出FII在1Q因关税担忧净卖出近US$50bn，随后4月至10月净买入近US$50bn，但近期再次转为净卖出约US$22bn。接着分析共同基金持仓变化，显示基金增持沙特和巴西，减持北亚和印度，行业上增配中国消费零售、减配印度工业。然后通过EPFR数据展示GEM基金连续第11周净流入，全球股票基金本周净流入强劲。最后通过南向通和北向通数据，展示中国内地投资者通过南向通大量买入港股，以及北向通成交活跃。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出FII从4月低点流入后近期转为流出，以及共同基金持仓变化趋势可能延续。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Foreign investors turned buyers and bought nearly US$50bn in EM equities (excl China) from April lows to October - but the recent inflows have come after nearly US$50bn selling in 1Q on tariff concerns and after many years of weak flows (cumulative US$190bn of selling since 2018).

Exhibit 2: Among EM markets, Saudi Arabia (+US$6bn) and Brazil (+US$5bn) have seen the most foreign buying in 2025, while India (-US$19bn) and South Africa (-US$12bn) have seen the most selling.

Exhibit 3: Based on EPFR, GEM funds saw US$37bn of buying in 2025.

Exhibit 4: In 2025, domestic investors are the major buyer of US and Europe equities.

Exhibit 5: Based on final EPFR data, EM funds are most OW Brazil/Mexico, and most UW India/China. Over the past month, EM funds have raised exposure the most in Saudi Arabia/Brazil, and trimmed exposure in Korea/Taiwan/India.

Exhibit 6: Sectorally, funds are most OW China Industrials and Korea Tech HW & Semis, and most UW China Banks. The largest allocation increase (vs. benchmark) was China Consumer Retail, while India Industrials saw the biggest cut over the past 1/3 months.

Exhibit 7: In 2025, EM/Asia and China funds averaged 28-30% returns, marking their third consecutive year of gains.

Exhibit 8: Only about half of the largest Asian/EM funds have outperformed their benchmarks (below past 10-yr average of 55-65%).

Exhibit 9: Fils have become sellers of EM equities and have net sold nearly US$22bn from recent peak, after seeing ~US$47bn inflows from April lows.

Exhibit 10: GEM funds saw inflows of US$0.9bn.

Exhibit 11: Adding market mandates, EM funds saw total inflows of US$57bn over the past 8 weeks, led by China (+US$23bn) and GEM (+US$21bn).

Exhibit 12: While inflows in Europe-focused funds have moderated after a strong 1H, EM funds have seen accelerating fund inflows in recent months as investors continue to diversify regionally.

Exhibit 13: The EM Asia region (ex-China) has seen selling of US$24bn, after US$40bn inflows started from April 2025.

Exhibit 14: Within Asia, Southbound saw the largest annual buying (+US$180bn) in 2025, followed by Japan (+US$37bn).

Exhibit 15: EM Asia ex-China markets saw FIl selling of US$0.3bn w/w, led by India (-US$1.2bn) but offset by Taiwan (+US$0.8bn) and Korea (+US$0.2bn).

Exhibit 16: EM Asia ex-China markets saw FIl outflows of US$41bn in 2025.

Exhibit 17: Non-Asia EMs saw selling of US$50mn wow, led by UAE (-US$30mn) and South Africa (-US$10mn).

Exhibit 18: In 2025, we have seen Fil outflows of US$1.3bn in Non-Asia EM markets, led by South Africa (-US$12bn) and Poland (-US$5bn).

Exhibit 19: Among EM markets, Saudi Arabia (+US$6bn) and Brazil (+US$5bn) have seen the most foreign buying in 2025, while India (-US$19bn) and South Africa (-US$12bn) have seen the most selling.

Exhibit 20: Over the past month, EM Asia ex China, Latam saw outflows, while CEEMEA saw inflows.

Exhibit 21: Asia markets saw Dil inflow of US$1.5bn this week, led by India (+US$1.9bn) and Taiwan (+$US0.3bn). Korea (-US$0.8bn) saw moderate outflows w/w.

Exhibit 22: Non-Asia EM markets saw US$30mn Dil inflows this week, led by UAE (+US$30mn).

Exhibit 23: India (+US$90bn) has seen the most DII buying in 2025.

Exhibit 24: DII Flows into local equities market by geographic regions in 2025.

Exhibit 25: Cumulative Southbound flows since inception in late 2014.

Exhibit 26: Weekly Southbound net buying in past 52 weeks.

Exhibit 27: SB weekly net buying by sector.

Exhibit 28: Cumulative Southbound flows YTD.

Exhibit 29: Southbound top buying for the week.

Exhibit 30: Southbound top selling for the week.

Exhibit 31: Largest Southbound holdings (Value and % of float).

Exhibit 32: Top Southbound ownership changes (over the past week).

Exhibit 33: Top Southbound traded stocks this week (as % of stock turnover).

Exhibit 34: Occurrences in Top 10 stocks (Southbound favorites).

Exhibit 35: Weekly Northbound total turnover in past 52 weeks.

Exhibit 36: Northbound top turnover for the week.

Exhibit 37: Occurrences in Top 10 stocks.